How this stays honest.
Nothing below is a one-time snapshot. Every figure the engine uses carries its own source and a last-checked date, and two scheduled passes keep both current.
Drift check
Re-reads the original source behind a figure we already track and checks whether the number has changed. If it has, the change goes to human review with its evidence attached. Nothing is applied automatically.
Discovery pass
Looks beyond the figures we already track for brand-new rules the engine doesn't cover yet: a new tax scheme, a changed treaty, a rule set to expire. Anything it finds goes to human review, never straight into the model.
How stale is too stale, by domain.
Not every fact moves at the same speed, so the freshness bar is set per domain, not one global number:
| Domain | Stale after |
|---|---|
| Income tax | 13 months |
| Healthcare | 13 months |
| Market and mortality assumptions | 12 months |
| Social Security and pensions | 18 months |
| Long-term care | 18 months |
| Succession and estate | 24 months |
| Expat regimes and residency | 24 months |
| Tax treaties | 36 months |
The watchlist, ten countries at a time.
Every item below is copied straight from that country's own profile, the same one the engine computes against. Nothing here is written just for this page.
Profile last verified: July 17, 2026
Whether French tax can offset the 3.8% US Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) is unsettled. The Christensen (France) and Bruyea (Canada) cases were argued at the Federal Circuit on March 3 2026, with no ruling yet. If the government wins, you pay the 3.8% yourself on investment income, on top of your foreign tax credit.
When: Federal Circuit ruling expected 2026
The treaty (Article 18(1)) reserves US retirement-plan distributions to the US, and a 2020 French government answer confirms that reading - so a qualified Roth withdrawal ends up untaxed on both sides, which is how the plan models it. But official French guidance (BOFiP) never names Roth accounts, and some practitioners warn a personal Roth IRA could be challenged as not being a treaty pension, which would expose it to the progressive scale plus 18.6% social charges. This risk is shown for awareness and is not folded into the outcome band.
When: No French ruling; audit-position dependent
A December 2025 reform (Article 53 of the 2026 Social Security finance law) replaces the ad-hoc CSM charge of about 6.5%. The new capped health contribution applies to non-active, non-EU residents on PUMa. The amount is still to be set by decree and is expected to be well below 6.5%. It is not yet modeled because the rate is unknown, so it is shown only for awareness.
When: Rate set by decree, 2026
New residents are exempt from the IFI real-estate wealth tax on non-French property for their first five years. After that, worldwide real estate above €1.3M is in scope. This is already reflected in your projection once you pass year five.
When: Year 6 after you move (already modeled)
Profile last verified: July 17, 2026
The Rentista category accepts proof of US$2,500/month of stable income for two years or a US$60,000 bank deposit, and immigration practice has interpreted the income route more strictly in recent years. The mandatory Caja contribution is also assessed on your declared income at the Caja's (CCSS) discretion. So your actual health cost can come in well above the modeled figure.
When: Practice is shifting now
Profile last verified: July 17, 2026
Panama's payroll-funded CSS regime is closed to retirees who never contributed locally. The CSS voluntary regime is open only to people who join before pension age, 62 for men and 57 for women, and even then it is not comprehensive senior cover. So most care still runs through MINSA out-of-pocket or private or international insurance. Local plans carry age caps (around 64 to 70) and exclude pre-existing conditions. International cover climbs steeply with age, so your real health cost can exceed the modeled figure later in retirement.
When: Cost escalates with age
Profile last verified: July 17, 2026
The Por. 161/162 rules (effective 2024) tax foreign income you bring into Thailand in any later year. A relaxation has been discussed but not enacted. The LTR Wealthy Pensioner visa exempts foreign income. But if you never get the LTR visa, or lose it, the IRA and pension money you bring in is taxed at 0-35%. We model this harsher outcome as taxation without the LTR exemption.
When: Rule in force since 2024; changes discussed but not enacted
Profile last verified: July 17, 2026
The foreign-pensioner regime is granted for at most 10 tax years and cannot be renewed. From year 11, you revert to standard IRPEF of 23–43%, plus 26% on gains and the IVIE/IVAFE wealth taxes. That is a large tax step-up late in retirement.
When: Year 11 after you move (the regime is non-renewable)
The treaty assigns Social Security to the country where you live, Italy (Article 18(2)). But the US saving clause lets the US tax its own citizens, and practitioners read that carve-out inconsistently. The residual US tax on investment income under the 7% regime is also not cleanly settled.
When: Filing-position dependent; no near-term resolution
No Italian ruling names Roth accounts. Rulings on 401(k)/IRA withdrawals (interpelli 462/2021, 616/2021) tax US retirement distributions like pension income, and the treaty (Article 18(1)) gives Italy the sole taxing right, so an exemption route is hard to see. Practitioners disagree only on scope: the full withdrawal versus the growth portion. The plan models the full-amount position; the favorable case models withdrawals escaping Italian tax.
When: No on-point ruling; filing-position dependent
Profile last verified: July 17, 2026
The Art. 5B foreign-pensioner regime applies the 7% flat rate for a maximum of 15 tax years. After that, you move to Greece's standard scale of 9–44%, plus 15% on gains, on your worldwide income. That is a steep increase if you are still drawing a large income late in retirement.
When: Year 16 after you move (15-year cap)
Profile last verified: July 17, 2026
The treaty gives Mexico the exclusive right to tax a resident's US retirement distributions, and Mexican law offers no Roth exemption - its income-tax law's pension carve-out is scoped to Mexican AFORE (and government-worker) accounts. But no SAT ruling says whether the full withdrawal or only the growth portion is taxable. The plan models the full-amount position; the favorable case models withdrawals escaping Mexican tax. Enforcement is self-reporting-dependent, which is not a filing position.
When: No ruling; filing-position dependent
A Mexican AFORE retirement account is a PFIC for US purposes. Whether it is also a foreign trust (Forms 3520/3520-A) is genuinely unsettled, and cautious advisors file anyway. If you fund one, your reporting burden - and penalty exposure - could be larger than modeled.
When: No IRS ruling; filing-position dependent
A US-Mexico totalization agreement was signed in 2004 but never entered into force. Self-employment or business income can owe the full 15.3% US self-employment tax, with no offset against Mexican contributions. Pure investment or pension retirees are unaffected.
When: Signed 2004, never ratified; no near-term change
Profile last verified: July 17, 2026
Irish Revenue recognizes qualifying periodic Roth distributions as tax-free in practice under section 200 of the Taxes Consolidation Act 1997 (a foreign pension not taxed as income at home is exempt), but there is no binding ruling on Roth itself. Lump sums instead fall under section 200A (from 2023): tax-free only up to a €200,000 lifetime cap. A self-directed ARF/PRSA may be a foreign grantor trust (Forms 3520/3520-A) holding PFICs. Favorable Roth and pension treatment stays unconfirmed; the plan models Roth withdrawals as untaxed.
When: No binding ruling; position-dependent
Profile last verified: June 1, 2026
Portuguese tax law has no provision recognizing an already-taxed US retirement account, and no binding ruling or arbitration decision addresses IRA or Roth withdrawals. The default position taxes the full amount as pension income at progressive rates. Practitioners sometimes claim a return-of-capital split (taxing only part of each withdrawal), but flag it themselves as unofficial. The favorable case models withdrawals escaping Portuguese tax.
When: No ruling; filing-position dependent
Portugal closed NHR to new movers in 2024, and its IFICI replacement excludes pensions. So you already pay standard IRS (up to 48% plus 2.5–5% solidarity) on IRA/401(k)/pension draws. The lesson: special regimes can vanish, and progressive rates or solidarity thresholds can move against you.
When: NHR closed 2024; rates set annually in the State Budget
Profile last verified: July 17, 2026
Binding rulings from Spain's Dirección General de Tributos (DGT) - consulta V1535-14, following V2412-05 - treat US Social Security as taxable in Spain on the general IRPF scale, with a US credit. They read the treaty's Article 20 'may be taxed' language as non-exclusive. A minority of specialists argue the treaty exempts it. The plan models the taxable position; the favorable case models the exemption.
When: Official position now; could shift with litigation
The Patrimonio wealth tax and the national ISGF (made permanent in 2024) both reach your worldwide net worth. Madrid and Andalucía rebate the regular wealth tax to near zero today. A future government could remove that rebate or lower the ISGF threshold. You can compare regions in your plan, but the underlying rules can still change.
When: Policy-dependent; ISGF is now permanent
This page is data, not marketing copy.
Every watch item above, and its source link, is the exact same horizonRisks entry rendered on that country's own fact sheet, pulled from the same CountryProfile record the engine computes against. There is no separate copy that could drift from the model.
See each country's full fact sheet, sources, and confidence rating under country guides.