How this stays honest.
Nothing below is a one-time snapshot. Every figure the engine uses carries its own primary-source citation and a last-verified date, and two scheduled passes keep that current.
Drift check
Re-reads the primary source behind an already-encoded figure and checks whether the value itself has changed. A found discrepancy becomes a reviewed, evidence-cited change - never applied automatically.
Discovery pass
Looks past the figures already tracked for new mechanisms entirely - a new regime, a renegotiated treaty article, a sunset clause - that the engine doesn't model yet. Findings go to human review, never straight into the model.
How stale is too stale, by domain.
Not every fact moves at the same speed, so the freshness bar is set per domain, not one global number:
| Domain | Stale after |
|---|---|
| Income tax | 13 months |
| Healthcare | 13 months |
| Market and mortality assumptions | 12 months |
| Social Security and pensions | 18 months |
| Long-term care | 18 months |
| Succession and estate | 24 months |
| Expat regimes and residency | 24 months |
| Tax treaties | 36 months |
The watchlist, ten countries at a time.
Every item below is copied straight off that country's own profile - the same one the engine computes against. Nothing here is written just for this page.
Profile last verified: June 1, 2026
Whether French tax can offset the 3.8% US Net Investment Income Tax is unsettled. Christensen (France) and Bruyea (Canada) were argued at the Federal Circuit on March 3 2026 with no ruling yet. If the government wins, you pay the 3.8% out of pocket on investment income on top of your foreign tax credit.
When: Federal Circuit ruling expected 2026
A Dec 2025 reform (Art. 53 of the 2026 Social Security finance law) replaces the ad-hoc ~6.5% CSM with an explicit capped health contribution for non-active non-EU residents on PUMa - but the amount is still to be set by decree, expected materially below 6.5%. Not yet modeled (the rate is unknown); shown for awareness.
When: Rate set by decree, 2026
New residents are exempt from the IFI real-estate wealth tax on non-French property for their first five years. After that, worldwide real estate above €1.3M is in scope. This is already reflected in your projection once you pass year five.
When: Year 6 after you move (already modeled)
Profile last verified: June 1, 2026
A static $60,000 bank deposit historically satisfied the Rentista category, but authorities increasingly demand verifiable recurring income. The mandatory Caja contribution is also assessed on declared income at CCSS discretion, so your health cost can come in well above the modeled figure.
When: Practice is shifting now
Profile last verified: June 1, 2026
Panama's public CSS is effectively closed to retirees who never contributed locally, so you rely on MINSA out-of-pocket or private/international insurance. Local plans carry age caps (~64–70) and pre-existing exclusions; international cover climbs steeply with age, so your real health cost can exceed the modeled figure later in retirement.
When: Cost escalates with age
Profile last verified: June 1, 2026
Por. 161/162 (effective 2024) taxes foreign income remitted to Thailand in any later year; a proposed relaxation stalled in 2025. The LTR Wealthy Pensioner visa exempts foreign income, but if you lose/never get LTR, remitted IRA/pension draws are taxed at 0–35%. The adverse case models taxation without the LTR shelter.
When: Rule in flux; relaxation drafted 2025 but not enacted
Profile last verified: June 1, 2026
The Art. 24-ter foreign-pensioner regime is granted for a maximum of 10 tax years and cannot be renewed. From year 11 you revert to standard IRPEF (23–43%) plus 26% on gains and IVIE/IVAFE wealth taxes - a large step-up late in retirement.
When: Year 11 after you move (the regime is non-renewable)
Treaty Art. 18(2) assigns Social Security to the residence state (Italy), but the US saving clause lets the US tax its own citizens; practitioners read the carve-out inconsistently. The residual-US-tax-on-investment-income point under the 7% regime is also not cleanly modeled.
When: Filing-position dependent; no near-term resolution
Profile last verified: June 1, 2026
The Art. 5B foreign-pensioner regime applies the 7% flat rate for a maximum of 15 tax years. After it lapses you revert to the standard Greek scale (9–44%) plus 15% on gains on your worldwide income - a steep increase if you are still drawing late in retirement.
When: Year 16 after you move (15-year cap)
Profile last verified: June 1, 2026
A Mexican AFORE retirement account is a PFIC for US purposes; whether it is ALSO a foreign trust (Forms 3520/3520-A) is genuinely unsettled, and conservative advisors file. If you fund one, your reporting burden - and penalty exposure - could be larger than modeled.
When: No IRS ruling; filing-position dependent
A US-Mexico totalization agreement was signed in 2004 but never entered into force. Self-employment or business income can owe full 15.3% US SE tax with no offset against Mexican contributions. Pure investment/pension retirees are unaffected.
When: Signed 2004, never ratified; no near-term change
Profile last verified: June 1, 2026
Irish Revenue recognizes qualifying periodic Roth distributions as tax-free in practice, but there is no binding ruling and Roth lump sums may be treated differently. A self-directed ARF/PRSA may be a foreign grantor trust (Forms 3520/3520-A) holding PFICs. Treat favorable Roth/pension treatment as unconfirmed.
When: No binding ruling; position-dependent
Profile last verified: June 1, 2026
Portugal closed NHR to new movers in 2024 and its IFICI replacement excludes pensions, so you already pay standard IRS (up to 48% + 2.5–5% solidarity) on IRA/401(k)/pension draws. The cautionary lesson: special regimes can vanish, and progressive rates/solidarity thresholds can move against you.
When: NHR closed 2024; rates set annually in the State Budget
Profile last verified: June 1, 2026
AEAT's binding ruling V0249-20 treats US Social Security as taxable in Spain on the general IRPF scale (with a US credit), reading the treaty's "may be taxed" as non-exclusive. A minority of specialists argue the treaty exempts it. The plan models the AEAT position (taxed); the favorable case models the exemption.
When: Official position now; could shift with litigation
Patrimonio + the national Solidarity Tax (ISGF, made permanent from 2024) reach your worldwide net worth. Madrid/Andalucía rebate the regular wealth tax to ~0, but a future government could remove the rebate or lower the ISGF threshold - the region toggle lets you compare, but the rules themselves can change.
When: Policy-dependent; ISGF is now permanent
This page is data, not marketing copy.
Every watch item above, and its source link, is the exact same horizonRisks entry rendered on that country's own fact sheet - pulled from the same CountryProfile record the engine computes against. There is no separate copy that could drift from the model.
See each country's full fact sheet, sources, and confidence rating under country guides.